At a seminar at the division for Physical Resource Theory at Chalmers, Monday, December 12, at 13.15-14.00 Martin Persson will present a paper entitled 'Conditional Cash Transfers and Payments for Environmental Services - a conceptual framework for explaining and judging differences in outcomes' which he has written together with Francisco Alpizar.

SUMMARY: We develop a conceptual framework elucidating the main determinants of conditional cash transfers (CCT) and payments for environmental services (PES) program impacts. Using a simple multi-agent model and evaluations of existing programs we show that: (1) the share of the population who meet the program’s conditions at baseline is a powerful predictor of program efficiency, and (2) program efficiency is eroded by selection bias (people who already meet conditions self-selecting into the programs at higher rates than those who do not). Based on these results, we discuss possibilities for increasing efficiency and criteria for evaluating and choosing between CCTs/PES or other policy instruments.